Did Minneapolis Crime Drop 30% Because of Federal Immigration Arrests?
“Crime in Minneapolis is down 25-30% because the administration has removed thousands of criminals from the area.”
The crime statistics are largely accurate: homicides, robberies, and carjackings fell sharply in 2025. However, attributing this to the federal 'Operation Metro Surge' is misleading, as the operation only began in December 2025, while crime had been trending down throughout the entire year.
What They Are Saying
In a February 8, 2026 interview, President Trump claimed that crime in Minneapolis is down “25-30%” specifically because his administration “removed thousands of criminals” from the area. This refers to “Operation Metro Surge,” a federal immigration enforcement campaign launched in late 2025.
What The Documents Show
Minneapolis Police Department (MPD) data confirms that some categories of violent crime dropped significantly in 2025. However, the picture is not uniformly positive.
| Category | Change | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Carjackings | ~73% decrease | Down |
| Robberies | ~50% decrease | Down (vs. 2021 levels) |
| Homicides | ~17% decrease | Down (77 in 2024 → 64 in 2025) |
| Aggravated Assaults | ~20% increase | Up |
| Motor Vehicle Thefts | ~18% increase | Up |
The administration selectively cited the categories that declined while omitting those that rose. The claim of a uniform 25-30% reduction across crime is not supported by the full dataset. Even the robbery figure depends on which time window is used: a narrow White House snapshot of January-early February showed a 25% decrease, while the broader year-to-date data showed a 6% increase.
The causal link to the Trump administration’s immigration operation is also unsupported by the timeline.
Timing Mismatch
The decline in crime was consistent throughout 2025. Homicides and shootings were already trending down well before “Operation Metro Surge” launched in December 2025. The administration is claiming credit for a trend that predates its intervention by nearly a full year.
Local Factors
Minneapolis Police Chief Brian O’Hara and Mayor Jacob Frey have attributed the safety gains to local police reforms, successful intervention strategies, and community partnerships implemented over the last three years. Neither the police department nor the city government credits the federal operation with the crime reduction.
Operation Scope
While federal agents have reportedly made over 4,000 arrests in the region since December, many of these arrests occurred after the 2025 crime stats were already recorded. Furthermore, local officials have opposed the operation, arguing it disrupts community trust rather than aiding public safety.
The claim selectively cites categories where crime fell, ignores categories where crime rose, and falsely attributes a year-long trend to a federal operation that only began in the final month of that year. The Minneapolis Police Department crime dashboard is public. The timeline speaks for itself.